TL;DR
A study by researchers from the FDA, CDC and USDA found that the United States has made “none to very slight” progress toward national foodborne illness reduction goals. The latest available data show rising incidence of Campylobacter, Listeria and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli infections, while Salmonella rates were nearly unchanged; none of the four Healthy People 2030 targets has been met.
Researchers from the FDA, CDC and USDA found that the United States has made “none to very slight” progress toward national foodborne illness reduction targets, with none of four Healthy People 2030 goals met in the latest available data. Incidence rose for Campylobacter, Listeria monocytogenes and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC), while Salmonella rates were nearly unchanged, according to the study published in the Journal of Food Protection.
The researchers compared the most recent surveillance estimates with baselines drawn from 2016–2018 data and the targets set under Healthy People 2030. Campylobacter incidence rose from 16.2 to 20.6 infections per 100,000 people, against a target of 10.9. The latest Campylobacter estimate covers 2023; estimates for the other three pathogens cover 2024.
Salmonella incidence was 15.2 infections per 100,000 people, little changed from a baseline of 15.3 and above the target of 11.5. STEC incidence increased from 4.6 to 5.7 per 100,000, compared with a target of 3.7. Listeria monocytogenes rose from 0.27 to 0.36 per 100,000, while its target is 0.22. The figures describe population-level incidence rates, not the total number of infections.
The study examined nearly four decades of national food safety objectives using historical surveillance data, primarily from the CDC’s Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network. The authors said the findings so far for Healthy People 2030 are consistent with the limited progress described in a 2025 Government Accountability Office report. The research material cites more than 9,000 reported foodborne illness outbreaks across the 50 states between 2011 and 2022, and estimates annual costs of $75 billion in 2023 dollars for medical care, lost productivity and premature deaths, including costs associated with conditions that develop after an initial illness.
The Cost of Missed Food Safety Goals
The data matter because foodborne infections can cause illness, medical expenses and lost work, and some people experience health problems after the initial infection. The study’s cited cost estimate—$75 billion annually—shows the scale of the burden attributed to foodborne illness in the United States, although it is an estimate covering several categories of cost, not a direct calculation of the effect of missed 2030 targets.
For public health officials, the pathogen-specific results offer a way to track whether national prevention goals are being reached. The pattern is not uniform: Salmonella incidence is nearly flat, while the measured rates for three other pathogens have increased. That difference may help guide monitoring and prevention work, but the study does not establish why the rates changed or identify a single intervention responsible.
People who prepare, serve or regulate food also have a stake in reliable surveillance. If infection rates remain above targets, public agencies and food-sector organizations may need to review prevention efforts and the quality of the data used to evaluate them. The findings describe progress against national objectives; they do not by themselves determine whether any particular company, food or policy caused an increase.
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Four Decades of National Targets
Healthy People is a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services initiative developed with public and private partners. It sets national health objectives on a 10-year cycle. The effort began with a 1979 report on health promotion and disease prevention; food safety objectives were first included in Healthy People 2000. Healthy People 2030 is the initiative’s fourth decade of food safety objectives.
The researchers reviewed changes across those decades and reported that none of the Healthy People 2020 food safety targets had been met. Their current assessment focuses on the four pathogen targets with the latest available Healthy People 2030 data: Campylobacter, Salmonella, STEC and Listeria monocytogenes.
Comparisons across decades are not straightforward. The study says surveillance methods, diagnostic technologies and approaches to setting targets have changed over time. Earlier objectives often used a single year as a baseline; more recent targets use pooled averages across three years and more rigorous statistical methods. Those differences complicate direct comparisons between one decade’s results and another’s.
““none to very slight” progress”
— The FDA, CDC and USDA research team
Limits of the Surveillance Comparisons
The study reports surveillance trends and comparisons with targets, but the available information does not explain what caused the increases in Campylobacter, STEC or Listeria incidence. It also does not establish whether changes in food production, exposure, testing or other factors drove particular results. The authors note that evolving diagnostic technology and surveillance practices make comparisons across decades difficult.
The latest data are not from the same year for all four pathogens: Campylobacter figures cover 2023, while the other reported figures cover 2024. The source material does not provide confidence intervals or further detail about uncertainty around each estimate. It is also not yet clear from the report summary what specific policy or prevention changes agencies may pursue in response to the findings.
Tracking the 2030 Benchmarks
Healthy People 2030 remains in progress, so additional surveillance data will show whether the current trends continue and whether incidence moves closer to the targets. The next useful comparisons will depend on updated estimates for each pathogen, interpreted against the same baselines and target definitions where possible.
Federal and state public health agencies will continue gathering and analyzing illness data through surveillance systems, including the CDC’s Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network. The study’s results provide a status check rather than a forecast: they show that the four goals remain unmet in the latest available data, but do not predict whether they will be reached by the end of the decade.
Key Questions
Which foodborne illness targets remain unmet?
All four targets assessed—Campylobacter, Salmonella, STEC and Listeria monocytogenes—remain unmet in the latest available Healthy People 2030 data.
Which infection rates increased?
Compared with their 2016–2018 baselines, incidence increased for Campylobacter, STEC and Listeria. Salmonella incidence was nearly unchanged.
What periods do the latest figures cover?
The reported figures cover 2023 for Campylobacter and 2024 for Salmonella, STEC and Listeria monocytogenes.
Does the study explain why rates rose?
No cause is established in the source material. The researchers report changes in incidence and say shifts in surveillance methods, diagnostic technologies and target-setting complicate comparisons over time.
What is Healthy People 2030?
It is the current decade of a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services initiative that sets national health objectives. Its food safety goals include reducing incidence of selected foodborne infections.
Source: foodsafetynews.com
